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Australia PMI, Japan Jibun Flash PMI, Lunar New Year holidays

Passenger numbers at New Zealand’s Auckland airport reached 74% of pre-pandemic levels in November

New Zealand’s Auckland Airport said total passenger traffic in November reached 74% of its level for the financial year to June 2019, the last year unaffected by the pandemic. monthly traffic updates.

International passenger numbers were at 67% of pre-pandemic levels, the release said, adding that the majority of international travel that had recovered was on short-haul flights from Australia and the Pacific Islands.

Demand for routes between New Zealand and the North America region has recovered to 86% of pre-pandemic levels, including the addition of two destinations in Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth) and New York.

— Lee Ji-hye

CNBC Pro: These 6 low-debt global stocks are set to outperform, says Bernstein

Rising interest rates have significant implications for companies with large amounts of debt. This is because increased borrowing is likely to result in higher costs.

As interest rates continue to rise, Bernstein analysts believe stocks with low debt exposure and high debt quality should outperform.

The investment bank named some of the world’s low-debt stocks that have investment-grade credit ratings and are likely to outperform.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Zip share reversed after initial rally

Australia’s ‘buy now, pay later’ company zip After a brief rally that followed, it fell more than 10%. Quarterly results.

Zip traded 15% lower, recording 12% revenue growth before rebounding sharply from its previous gain of more than 10%.

Underlying “monthly cash burn continues to decline and is expected to improve further,” the company said. The company said its currently available cash and liquidity position is “sufficient for the company to generate positive cash flow” and expects to achieve positive cash EBITDA by the first half of fiscal 2024.

A week ahead: PMI, Australian and Singapore inflation reports, South Korean GDP

Here are some of the major economic events in Asia Pacific that investors will be watching this week.

Stock markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain closed until trading resumes on January 30.

On Tuesday, while most markets are closed to observe the Lunar New Year, regional purchasing manager’s index readings in Japan and Australia will be on the lookout. Excluding Australia, Japan and Indonesia.

Inflation reports will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, when Australia and New Zealand release their final quarterly 2022 consumer price indices. Singapore releases his December inflation rate.

The Hong Kong market is expected to resume trading on Thursday.

Fourth-quarter GDP figures for South Korea and the Philippines will be released on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan will release a summary of its opinions at its latest monetary policy meeting in January. Japan will also release its service producer price index on Thursday.

Japan’s core CPI measure for the capital Tokyo will be a barometer of where monetary policy is headed.

Australian producer price indices and trade data will also be closely monitored as indicators ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting in the first week of February.

— Lee Ji-hye

Australian business conditions worsened last month: NAB survey

National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey showed business conditions worsened in December, dropping to 12 points from 20 points in November.

the survey reflects Deterioration of trading conditionsprofitability, and employment, NAB said.

NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “The main message of the December monthly survey is that growth momentum has slowed significantly in the second half of 2022, with price and purchase cost pressures likely to peak. It is.”

Meanwhile, the business sentiment index rose 3 points to -1 in December, improving from -4 points in November.

— Lee Ji-hye

Japan’s leading factory data shows contraction in second month

The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index stood at 48.9 in January for the second month in a row, falling below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion in the previous month.

The reading is “signaled Strongest joint deterioration in good health [of] Since October 2020, the Japanese manufacturing sector will:

The au Jibun Bank Flash Composite Output Index rose to 50.8 in January, up slightly from 49.7 in December.

Flash services business activity rose further with print at 52.4, higher than December’s 51.1.

— Lee Ji-hye

CNBC Pro: Wall Street is thrilled with Chinese tech and loves one megacap

After more than two years of regulatory crackdowns and a pandemic-induced recession, Chinese tech companies are back on Wall Street’s radar.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Xavier Ong

The US Federal Reserve is likely to discuss when to stop rate hikes next week, says journal report

Fed officials are almost certain to approve a further slowdown in rate hikes next week, while also discussing when to stop rate hikes altogether. Wall Street Journal report.

The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, is scheduled to meet between January 31st and February 31st. 1, there is a market Pricing with almost 100% probability A quarter-point increase in central bank benchmark interest rates. Most notably, Fed President Christopher Waller said on Friday: He sees a 0.25 percentage point increase As a favorable move for future meetings.

But Waller said he doesn’t think the Fed is tightening yet, and several other recent central bankers have backed the idea.

The Journal’s report, citing official statements by policymakers, said slowing the pace of rate hikes could provide an opportunity to assess how previous rate hikes have affected the economy. rice field. A series of rate hikes starting in March 2022 saw a gain of 4.25%.

CME Group data shows market prices now show a quarter of a price increase over the next two meetings, followed by a period of no action, followed by a maximum price reduction of 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2023. will be

However, several civil servants, Including Governor Lael Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams use the phrase “staying on course” to describe future policy directions.

— Jeff Cox

Nasdaq continues to post gains as tech stocks rise

Nasdaq Composite rose more than 2.2% in midday trading on Monday, helped by beaten tech stocks.

With the move, the tech-heavy index picked up the pace for consecutive days of gains above 2%.of The index closed Friday at 2.66% higher.

Rising semiconductor stocks pushed the index higher. Tesla When appleMeanwhile, expectations that business will be boosted by China’s reopening surged 7.7% and 3.2%, respectively.western digital and Advanced Micro Devices Each increased by about 8%, but Qualcomm When NVIDIA jumped about 7%.

Information Technology was the best performing S&P 500 sector, up 2.7%. This is partly due to profits within the chip sector. Communication services he increased 1.9%. netflix, meta platform, alphabet When match group.

— Samantha Soobin

El-Erian says the Fed should raise 50 basis points.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, said inflation spikes may have been big in the past, but a shift to a 25 basis point rate hike at the next Fed meeting would be a “mistake”. rice field.

“‘I’m in a very small camp of thinking we shouldn’t be downshifting to 25 basis points, we should be downshifting to 50 basis points,'” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “They should take advantage of this window of growth we’re in, take advantage of where the markets are, and try to tighten financial conditions because I think we still have an inflation problem. am.”

Inflation has shifted from the goods sector to the services sector, but a recovery is very likely once China reopens and energy prices rise, he said.

El-Erian expects inflation to plateau around 4%. This leaves us wondering whether the Fed should continue to squash the economy to reach 2%, or commit to that level in the future and expect investors to be able to maintain a stable level of 3% to 4% in the near term. will be put in a difficult position.

“That’s probably the best result,” he said of the latter.

— Samantha Soobin

Earnings recession is imminent, according to Morgan Stanley

An earnings recession is imminent this year, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson.

“We expect the U.S. earnings outlook to disappoint both consensus estimates and current valuations, and our view remains unchanged,” he said in a note to clients.

Several positive developments in recent weeks, including the resumption of economic activity in China and lower natural gas prices in Europe, have made some investors more optimistic about the market outlook. .

However, Wilson cites price action as the main impact of this year’s rally, advising investors to remain bearish on equities.

“This year’s rally was led by low-quality stocks that were heavily shorted,” he said. “We also see stronger moves in cyclical stocks relative to defensive stocks.”

Wilson bases his forecast on the disappointing margins, and believes the odds are rising. Many industries are already facing slowing revenues, bloated inventories and underproductive workforces.

“It’s just a matter of timing and scale,” Wilson said. “We encourage investors to stay focused on the fundamentals and ignore the false signals and misleading reflections in this bear market hall of mirrors.”

— Kim Ha Kyung

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